Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts

When forecasting decisions in conflict situations, experts are often advised to figuratively stand in the other person’s shoes. We refer to this as “role thinking”, because, in practice, the advice is to think about how other protagonists will view the situation in order to predict their decisions. We tested the effect of role thinking on forecast accuracy. We obtained 101 role-thinking forecasts of the decisions that would be made in nine diverse conflicts from 27 Naval postgraduate students (experts) and 107 role-thinking forecasts from 103 second-year organizational behavior students (novices). The accuracy of the novices’ forecasts was 33% and that of the experts’ was 31%; both were little different from chance (guessing), which was 28%. The small improvement in accuracy from role-thinking strengthens the finding from earlier research that it is not sufficient to think hard about a situation in order to predict the decisions which groups of people will make when they are in conflict. Instead, it is useful to ask groups of role players to simulate the situation. When groups of novice participants adopted the roles of protagonists in the aforementioned nine conflicts and interacted with each other, their group decisions predicted the actual decisions with an accuracy of 60%.     

使用深度学习的社交物联网信任预测模型

社交物联网是社交网络概念在物联网中整合后兴起的一个蓬勃发展的研究领域。提出了一种适用于社交物联网网络的改进型节点级信任模型,并通过与其他信任模型的对比仿真实验证明在恶意节点的攻击下,提出的模型拥有更好的稳定性和适用性,总体波动较小。同时,针对实际社交物联网网络中新加入网络的陌生节点可能遇到的网络延迟影响信任值评估的问题,在改进型节点级信任模型的基础上进一步使用了深度学习模型对其进行信任值预测。仿真证明,使用深度学习预测后模型的系统性能明显优于不使用深度学习的模型,成功交互率提升约1.8%。     

风险投资与高新技术产业化互动机理及应用研究

文章运用系统分析方法研究了风险投资与高新技术产业化的相互作用机理,论述了两者形成良性互动之后所产生的积极影响,基于高新技术产业与风险投资尚处于起步阶段的特点,通过运用模糊数学理论构建了评价风险投资与高新技术产业化互动效率的层次结构模型,并且对模型进行了实证分析。     

用时延编码实现远程水声通信

本文研究了一种基于时延编码的远程水声通信技术，该技术利用线性调频（LFM）信号矩形脉冲的时延值进行时延编码，在接收端采用时延估计技术进行时延解码。初步的海试结果表明，该技术可以实现80km距离、4.16bit/s数据率的信息可靠传输。     

施工项目经理部场效应的研究

通过对施工项目的环境分析,提出了“项目经理部场效应”的概念和考核评价模型,认为如果把项目经理部所能直接影响的范围：内部、近外层、远外层,以及社会上尤其是同行业中潜在的竞争对手和潜在的投资方,定义为“场”。其效应在工程合同签定并对项目经理的选拔任命后即存在,贯穿于整个施工项目的全过程。以此强化项目经理部文化建设,构筑诚信、高绩效的项目经理部。     

Tax Interaction Effects,Environmental Regulation,and “Rule of Thumb” Adjustments to Social Cost

Preexisting distortions in factor markets complicate the estimation of the social welfare effects of regulatory interventions. The existence of these tax interaction effects (TIEs) suggests that general equilibrium (GE) approaches should be used to evaluate regulatory policies. However, formal GE analysis is not always feasible for the numerous environmental regulations proposed by federal, state, and local agencies. The question addressed in this paper is whether an empirically based rule of thumb upward adjustment factor is appropriate to properly scale social cost estimates in environmental policy. We argue that such rule of thumb adjustments are significantly less reliable than estimates based on a detailed general equilibrium analysis because of the uncertainty about both the magnitude and sign of the social cost distortion. In addition to addressing this question, the paper gives an overview of TIEs and their relevance to environmental policy.     

债务展期视角下的中小企业融资担保问题——基于《破产法》(2007)的若干条例

依据《破产法》(2007)对清偿顺序的规定,将担保分为拥有优先清偿权的债务担保和普通债务担保,并推导出展期下的两类担保定价公式;采用数值积分求得近似解,并运用二叉树及蒙特卡洛模拟等方法对解的准确性进行检验;对资产负债比、波动率等重要因子相继进行静态、比较静态以及动态分析,并结合实际数据给出了相应的结论。     

要素价格扭曲与经济失衡之间的互动关系研究

劳动力、资本、能源三种生产要素价格扭曲与宏观经济失衡之间存在互动关系。通过建立超越对数生产函数,估算改革开放以来中国劳动力、资本、能源三种生产要素价格的绝对和相对扭曲程度,继而建立VAR模型,考察各内生变量之间的脉冲响应关系。研究表明,要素价格扭曲和宏观经济失衡之间存在相互强化的互动关系。应从调整供给结构、增加政府民生支出、改革要素价格形成机制、提高生产效率等多方面着手,实现宏观经济再平衡。     

基于“服务交互”视角“中国服务”的餐饮特色培育研究

培育中国特色的餐饮服务对于本土餐饮品牌的经营与发展意义重大。本文在"中国服务"的内涵基础上,阐明"中国服务"的餐饮特色的内涵与特征;明确使"中国服务"成为走向世界的、独具中国特色的服务品牌,是培育"中国服务"的餐饮特色的核心目标,也是餐饮业发展的长远之计;基于"服务交互"的视角,为培育"中国服务"的餐饮特色,打造中国特色餐饮品牌的管理实践提供方法指导。旨在为餐饮业服务品质的提升,尤其是为本土中高端餐饮品牌的健康发展提供有益的参考。